SEC Tournament Round 1: Season Recap & Predictions

Opening Round Matchups 

The SEC tournament is back for the first time since 2005, and with it’s return comes a bracket full of teams whose seasons have looked exceptionally different from one another. For some programs, this opening round is a chance to confirm the identities they’ve built over the past three months; for others, it’s a shot to rewrite the story before the NCAA selections arrive. Seeding provides the structure, but momentum, matchups, and recent performances give us the real picture. Looking at how each team has evolved, who’s peaking, and where the vulnerabilities lie, here are some predictions for how each first round pairing will play out. 

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Oklahoma Vs. Arkansas 

Oklahoma’s earlier win against Arkansas this season helps set the tone for how these teams' matchup. Alexis Shelton and Emoni Bush carried the Sooners with heavy, reliable scoring, and once they settled into rhythm, Arkansas had trouble slowing them down despite strong outings from Romani Thurman, Parker Duncan, and Lakin Laurendine. What separated the match was Oklahoma’s control at the net, Kelli Jo Burgess and Kamille Gibson dictated long stretches with timely blocks; and their steadier back row play, where Dionii Fraga kept rallies alive that Arkansas couldn’t quite finish. Arkansas showed grit, especially in those late set pushes, but they lacked the balance and sustained pressure that Oklahoma created through both wings of their offense. If the Razorbacks can’t disrupt Shelton and Bush earlier in rallies or generate cleaner first touches, the matchup still tilts toward the Sooners in tournament play. 

Prediction: Oklahoma in four sets. 

Alabama Vs. South Carolina 

Alabama and South Carolina meet again with very different energy than the first time around. When they swept the Gamecocks in Columbia earlier this season, Alabama leaned heavily on its blocking. Ashby Daniel and Kaleigh Palmer both hit career highs, and controlled momentum in a way South Carolina couldn’t break. Since then, Alabama has grown into a much steadier, more confident group, and their four-set win over Missouri last week was another sign that they’re no longer as streaky and uncertain as they may have been in September. Palmer has emerged as a consistent scoring option, Hannah Parant’s setting has sharpened, and the Tide’s block continues to trend upward in production. South Carolina, meanwhile, is scrappy and athletic but hasn’t found a reliable rhythm late in matches, often fading once opponents speed up the pace. They have improved in serve receive compared to early in October, but sustaining offense has been their biggest challenge. With Alabama carrying momentum, stronger blocking, and far more balance across its lineup, the matchup tilts in their direction. 

Prediction: Alabama in three sets. 

Mississippi State Vs. Vanderbilt 

Mississippi State and Vanderbilt head into their rematch with the strange tension that comes from immediately seeing the same opponent again. Their five-set meeting last week was a reminder that Mississippi State’s record doesn’t fully reflect how heavy their offense can be when it’s humming. Berni Aguilar hammered a career high 23 kills, Lindsey Mangelson added a double-double with 16 kills and 14 digs, and setter Cayley Hanson kept the Bulldogs’ attack fed with 54 assists. They also out blocked Vanderbilt 12-8, flashing the same front row presence that’s quietly become one of their most reliable strengths. Vanderbilt, though only 3-12 in SEC play, didn’t sneak that win by accident; they absorbed Mississippi State’s volume and still found ways to win the late points, which says something about their composure in high stress sets. However, this rematch shifts to tournament intensity, where depth and experience usually tilt close matchups, and Mississippi State has more of both. Vanderbilt showed they can make it chaotic, but Mississippi State has had the sturdier foundation for most of this season. While it has the potential to be a surprising match, the Bulldogs will be out for redemption and if they play to their potential they may just get it.  

Prediction: Mississippi State in four sets, with fewer free points and a steadier closing gear than they showed in Starkville. 

LSU Vs. Ole Miss 

LSU and Ole Miss arrive in Savannah with records that don’t sit far apart, but the tone around each team shifted a bit after their marathon meeting in Baton Rouge in early November. LSU’s five set win leaned heavily on Jurnee Robinson and Nia Washington, who combined for 50 kills and looked like one of the league's most dangerous pin duos that day, and it wasn’t some fluke outburst, they’ve been LSU’s engine all season. Ole Miss countered with their own heavy arms in Melia Johnson, Gabi Placide, and Shayla Meyer, all of whom hit well enough to win, but the Rebels’ defense couldn’t slow LSU’s rhythm once setter Lauren Brooker settled into the match. Season-wide patterns back that up: LSU tends to score in longer bursts and absorb pressure with steadier floor defense, while Ole Miss leans more on hot streaks and individual shot-making. The Rebels do have the blocking edge, and that kept the last meeting close, but LSU’s balance and late set composure have traveled better over the last few weeks. 

Prediction: LSU in four sets, with Ole Miss pushing one set into extra points.